Outlook
Current economic forecasts indicate a moderate recovery in the global economy. However, this generally positive outlook continues to be accompanied by significant geopolitical uncertainties. The wars in the Middle East and Ukraine are having a major impact on global oil and natural gas prices. Repeated escalations and intermittent signs of de-escalation are causing high volatility.
Conflict-related disruptions to supply chains, higher energy prices, and increased logistics costs are also heightening inflationary pressures and weighing on economic growth. Interest rate hikes of 25 basis points each by the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve in September 2026 further dampen economic growth prospects. Additional uncertainty stems from the global trade policy environment, particularly from protectionist measures such as tariffs, which lead to increased volatility and impair planning certainty. Within the voestalpine Group, the Tubulars business unit of the Metal Engineering Division is currently particularly affected by this.
Low water levels on the Danube and the resulting bottlenecks in inland waterway and rail transport have been complicating the delivery of finished products in the Steel Division, particularly since August. At the same time, increased logistics costs are weighing on earnings and increasing the need for price adjustments.
Initial signs of an economic recovery in Europe are being observed to varying degrees across the individual divisions. Demand from the construction industry, mechanical engineering, and parts of the automotive industry, such as the components and wire sectors, remains subdued, while rail systems, aviation, and warehouse technology continue to show positive overall development. Regulatory measures in the European steel market, which have led to a noticeable decline in steel imports, are having a supportive effect. Despite the slow reduction of inventories on the customer side, positive price signals are emerging for the second half of the current business year.
The reorganization programs in the High Performance Metals Division and in the Automotive Components business unit of the Metal Forming Division continue to be implemented according to plan. In the High Performance Metals Division, the streamlining of the portfolio, the consolidation of European inventory locations, the reduction of the cost base, and a more favorable market environment are having a positive impact on operating earnings. In the Metal Forming Division as well, the reorganization measures are leading to the expected improvements in the cost structure. However, the still-challenging market environment requires additional measures.
The greentec steel transformation project in Linz and Donawitz remains on schedule and within budget. The cold commissioning of the two electric arc furnaces marks the next important milestone. Operation is scheduled to begin in the first half of calendar year 2027.
The Executive Board of voestalpine AG is confident about the Group’s future development and continues to expect solid EBITDA for the 2026/27 business year, exceeding the prior-year level. The war in the Middle East, which has lasted longer than expected, and its associated consequences are weighing particularly heavily on energy and logistics costs. In addition, energy projects in the crisis-troubled region are being further delayed. Logistical challenges and provisional additional U.S. duties1 are dampening earnings potential in the second half of the year as well. Against this backdrop, the EBITDA forecast for the 2026/27 business year has been adjusted to EUR 1.60 to 1.70 billion (previously: EUR 1.60 to 1.85 billion). This corresponds to an expected EBIT in the range of EUR 830 million to 930 million. The forecasts for EBITDA and EBIT include the positive one-off effects recognized in the first quarter of 2026/27, which amounted to a net total of approximately EUR 100 million.
1 Countervailing duties, anti-dumping duties